			  <First Eurasian War 1996-99>
			   The Instrument of His Will
				  (c)92.01.12
				by cobalt shiva


1.0 BACKGROUND:	  This file package contains a MEDC 
scenario that examines what the Jewish world will regard as the 
main theatre of operations in the First Eurasian War.  [Information 
unique to the BLUE player is in FEW5.BLU.  If you play the Israeli 
side in this scenario, be sure to read this ASCII file.  Information 
unique to the RED player is in FEW5.RED.  It is intended for those 
interested in playing the side of the Koranic Compact.]   

1.1 	The story so far... Civil war in the old soviet republics...  
The Rightful Restoration of the Romanovs to the Russian Throne 
in the year 1996 of the second Christian calendar... economic 
disorder in the West... emergence of the Gioro-Manchu Kingdom in 
China... the Tashkent Covenants...  But it was the next year, 5757, 
that was destined to take its sorrowful place in the histories -- and 
hearts -- of Jews around the world.  The State of Israel had been on 
its highest condition of military alert since Chanukah in 5757.  But 
nothing had happened!  And the tensions were beginning to tell.  
Still, the Mossad were adamant!  The Nations of the Koranic 
Compact had acquired some old soviet nuclear devices -- and 
several had reputedly been earmarked for "special delivery" to 
their  Zionist friends.  Until those weapons were found -- or 
otherwise rendered harmless -- the State of Israel could not let 
down its guard, even for an instant!  Still, the tension was 
beginning to tell...  Already there had been lapses, and even some 
"incidents."

1.2	Elsewhere, the Restored Russian Empire, under the 
Romanovs, was gradually reestablishing its dominion over the old 
Soviet Republics.  Conventional warfare replaced intermittent civil 
war in the Ukraine in 5756 following the secession of the Crimean 
Region from the Ukrainian Republic, and then its subsequent 
annexation by the Russian Empire.  The fighting in the Ukraine in 
early 5757 was hindered and slowed by an unusually severe 
winter.   Because of the relatively large Jewish community still 
living in that part of the world, both the Israeli press and people 
had followed with growing anxiety the events unfolding there.  The 
2nd Battle for Berdichev succeeded in checking Romanov 
advances toward Lvov,  but was otherwise of little tactical 
significance -- except, of course, to the thirty-some thousand 
civilians who had died,  many of whom had also been Hasidic 

1.3	  Strategically, however, the military situation was now 
very different.  The old Muslim Soviet Republics, Pakistan, Iran, 
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and other States party to the Tashkent 
Covenants formed what would become known as the Koranic 
Compact -- and immediately set out to correct the many sacrileges 
worked over the last five hundred years against the Nation of 
Islam.  Many Russian Christians died as a result.  But so did 
several hundred thousand Hindus and many Israelis -- a direct 
result of the first use of nuclear weapons in this conflict.  Post-war 
analysis demonstrated unequivocally that all of the weapons used 
in this phase of the conflict were of Soviet manufacture dating, in 
some cases, to the early 1950's.  This scenario examines one 
(small) facet of the events surrounding the use of these weapons.


1.4	Hashomer, The Watchmen, slept...  Do you remember 1973 
AD?  The Yom Kippur or Ramadan War?  On September 28th of 
that year, Palestinians hijacked an Austrian train bound for Israel 
with Soviet Jews.  Egyptian and Syrian Forces immediately went 
on alert;  their major military units mobilized; some moved to 
forward positions.  The Israeli Government interpreted these 
actions as essentially defensive: the Arabs were preparing for the 
inevitable Israeli reprisal for the hijacking.  On October 6th, those 
same Arab forces struck in an all-out, multi-front attack.  Yet 
another in Israel's series of wars for survival was on.  Only then, 
did Israel begin to mobilize its reserves... to "go" on alert.

1.41	In 5757, the Aluf for IDF Intelligence (a General Officer; 
literally, a commander of thousands) was determined that Israel 
would not be surprised a second time.  He had almost died 
himself in that short Yom Kippur war -- in one of the undermanned 
outposts on the Suez overrun by the Egyptians.  He watched with 
growing apprehension the developments surrounding the 
Tashkent Covenants, and then the formal declaration of the 
Koranic Compact.  And now the Mossad had given him irrefutable 
evidence that the Compact had acquired some of the old Soviet 
nuclear weapons.  He smiled a grim smile as the State of Israel 
put itself on alert.  Reserves were called up. Curfews were 
imposed, then tightened.  Borders were closed...  World wide 
condemnation began to grow; initially muted, it crescendoed to a 
roar after the first "incidents."  The World did not want yet another 
war to stain its increasingly bloody surface...

1.42	Meanwhile, in Damascus... Abdul was only distantly 
related to Hafez, but even distant relations mattered in the 
Ba'athist Party.  Although he was a proud man, and particularly 
good at what he did, he knew that it was more than simple merit 
that had gotten him to his current position.  So Abdul was loyal.  
And, though he did not particularly like what the Party had agreed 
to, he was playing his part.  As Minister for Information, it had not 
been particularly difficult to orchestrate the timing of the interview 
the CNN reporter had been seeking for some weeks now.  And the 
latest "incident" near Jeba (in the Golan Heights) had made that 
timing seem all the more natural and spontaneous...  Even if that 
incident had been truly a "minor" one -- a brief firefight between 
opposing patrols.  No one had actually died, after all...  Cooler 
heads had prevailed, yet again.

1.421	Abdul looked down at his watch again (a digital Casio like 
all the others most closely involved were wearing that day), and 
then back up at the reporter.  His expression was hard to read.  
Distracted?  Or annoyed?  The reporter was returning to his 
original questions.  "And so, Mr. Minister, these blatant 
provocations, as you call them, despite these provocations, you 
still believe that world public opinion mobilized by modern 
communications will eventually prevail?  And Israel will be forced 
to call off what you characterize as Zionist psychological 
terrorism?"  Abdul smiled wryly, and nodded.  "Of course.  What 
else can they do?  Syria will not be provoked -- especially in times 
such as these."  He paused.  And then looked up straight at the 
camera.  "What else can the Zionists do, my friend?   Attack us?  
When the whole world is watching, thanks to you and your noble 
Network?"  Another pause.  "Even I do not think them mad!"  It was 
then that his Casio began to chirp...  It was now exactly 7:30 in the 
morning, local time.

1.422	The Compact High Command had planned this operation 
carefully -- and cautiously.  As a result, all three of the nuclear 
devices employed in their Operation Jericho were in place at the 
appointed time -- and were detonated exactly as planned.  They 
had accepted from the outset that it would be virtually impossible 
to get the devices into Israel itself by "clandestine" means.  
Zionist security was too good to risk such a venture at the outset. 
Elsewhere, that approach could work; but here, it wasn't 
necessary.  Here, geography would be their ally, not stealth.  Even 
as Addul's watch continued to softly chirp, a single artillery shell 
began its forty kilometer flight to Quneitra.  It registered on Israeli 
counter battery radar, of course.  The Israelis were on full alert in 
the Heights.  But before any kind of thoughtful response could be 
initiated, other things happened.

1.423	Even before that single shell impacted, the two US DSP 
satellites "watching" the Middle East dutifully reported a pair of 
nearly simultaneous "nuclear events."  It was to a select few 
tucked away in the Rocky Mountains (not far from Cripple Creek) 
that this evidence of Arab cynicism was first revealed.  Of course, 
those distant observers did not initially see it in exactly those 
terms...  Sirens were sounding everywhere throughout the gridded 
mountain redoubt now.  A two star general in a dark blue uniform 
was literally shouting into the red phone in his hand.  "Damn it, 
Bill, of course my guys are verifying it!  It's crazy!  Those damn-
fool Israelis are attacking!  With nukes!  What else can it be?  We 
have exact coordinates on the first one already!"  His finger was 
still jabbing unconsciously at the map before him -- striking 
symbolically again and again at a place once known as Jeba -- 
inside Syria.

1.424	In Damascus, ten minutes had passed, and Abdul's 
interview was just about over.  The reporter was talking again, 
speaking "objectively" to his unseen world wide audience now; 
summarizing.  The reporter knew instinctively that the picture was 
still tightly focused on him alone.  On his cue, the studio 
cameraman began a final pull back, to show the reporter and his 
Syrian guest one last time.  It was then that someone in a bulky 
sweater and blue jeans literally ran into the picture and handed 
the reporter a piece of paper.  The reporter looked down at the 
paper, temporarily suppressing the anger welling up in him at this 
incredible intrusion!  It looked like a fax, but the printing looked 
like a telex, he half noticed.  What was Atlanta going to think?  He 
began to read it then, blinked twice, and then looked up at the 
camera, and then at the man still standing in front of him.  "MY 
GAWD!  Is this true?"  Limply, he handed the paper to Abdul.  Not 
knowing what to say, he simply stared at the Syrian whose eyes 
quickly scanned the note...  For the reporter, it was as though time 
had stopped, waiting for the Syrian to react.  For Abdul, time was 
now racing.  Everything depended on him!  Could he do it?

1.425	But Abdul had rehearsed this moment -- this exact moment 
-- a thousand times!  To the reporter, Abdul's feigned shock, 
quickly melting into barely controlled rage seemed genuine 
enough!  Abdul narrowed his eyes, and spoke slowly to the 
reporter.  "This is impossible!   How did your boy get it?"  Abdul 
thrust the paper back at the reporter, as if trying to deny its 
content.  The reporter was quickly regaining control of himself.  My 
god, what a story! he was thinking to himself.  He reached out and 
took the paper.  And then turned to the camera again.  "Charles, we 
need to verify something fast!"  He was talking to his anchor in 
Atlanta now.  But he knew the world was listening!

1.43	The solitary Syrian artillery shell exploded one hundred 
meters above the headquarters of  the 7th Brigade of the IDF -- and 
the two DSP satellites dutifully reported a third "nuclear event" to 
its own audience in a mountain redoubt called Cheyenne.  The 
Syrians would claim -- and would be believed for some time -- that 
this third explosion was yet another Israeli atomic device, one that 
had somehow detonated prematurely.  But for thousands of 
Syrians, Palestinians, and Israelis in the Golan Heights, on the 
banks of Lake Tiberias, and the Jordan, and further down wind, in 
the heart of Israel itself, blame would hardly matter any more...

1.44	Let me also tell you about a place called Groznyy.  It lies 
in the heart of the Chechen-Ingush region of the old Soviet Union.  
In this scenario it is represented by Tiflis (or Tbilisi) which lies 
about 200 Km to the southwest -- on the other side of the Bolshoy 
Kavkaz (mountain range).  In the winter of 5757 (or 1997 AD), the 
Compact controlled this place -- and much of the military materiel 
that the Soviet Union had once held there.  This even included a 
squadron of  Tupolov 16s,  known in the west as "Badger" 
Bombers.  And two nuclear armed AS-6 stand-off missiles, 
codenamed "Kingfish" in the West.  These were the devices that 
the Mossad had learned were designated "for special delivery" to 
the Zionist squatters in Palestine.

1.45	The initial fighting on this front of the F.E.W. was confined 
to the so-called Occupied Territories, Lebanon, and the State of 
Israel itself.  But if it was narrowly confined, it was all the more 
intense.  Almost spectacularly so, in fact.  Both sides had had 
weeks (months) to prepare.  They were ready.  Both sides were.  
And there were no surprises -- after the shock of nuclear 
detonations in the Golan.  Just a lot of killing.  Jew killing Arab; 
Arab killing Jew.  Jew killing Jew; Arab killing Arab.  Needless to 
say, it is not presently possible to capture all of this in a single 
Harpoon scenario.  


1.46	Israel had about 750 combat ready aircraft on the day the 
war began.  They were organized into roughly two dozen 
squadrons.  Except for those depicted in this scenario, they were 
all attached to the forces under the command of the Aluf for the 
Northern Region.  They supported the operations in the Golan 
Heights.  They were given priority for all ground strike munitions.  
For this reason, you are not to alter the loadouts of any aircraft in 
this scenario for the BLUE side.  (You still can, of course.  But that 
would make it another scenario.  If you want to play this one, leave 
the loadouts alone.)

1.47	The Compact strategy for their Operation Jericho was 
straightforward.  They would devote everything they had -- no 
reserves -- to an all out push through the Golan Heights and 
through Lebanon, and then into Israel proper.  All Jews, whether 
civilian or military, were to be treated alike -- as hostiles.  And no 
prisoners.  They expected -- correctly -- that Israeli defense would 
be stiffest at the outset.  Any break through would mean their 
eventual victory.  In the air, they were prepared to sustain 
incredible losses, just so long as the Israelis sustained losses 
too.  Air superiority through sheer attrition.  If the opportunity 
presented itself, they would also attempt air raids on Haifa and Tel 
Aviv.  But these would primarily be low-tech affairs -- dropping 
bombs -- since their supply of quality stand-off weapons was 
short.  However, they understood full well what the impact the 
destruction of a major city in Israel (for example, Tel Aviv) would 
have on Israeli morale.  To accomplish that, they tried two things.  
First, the Compact had agreed to use their airborne nuclear 
weapons on an Israeli city.  It would be released to the Arabs as 
soon as hostilities broke out.  Second, they would attempt raids 
from the sea, using all available Syrian and Libyan assets -- plus 
whatever could be brought down from the Black Sea.  Although 
these surface units would be extremely vulnerable to attacks from 
the air, it was hoped that the melee in the air during the initial 
stages of the conflict would permit one or two of their surface 
groups to approach within striking distance of an Israeli city.  
Everything depended on an early success -- somewhere.  It was a 
gamble.  Could it be made to pay off?   You be the judge if it made 
(or will make) sense militarily or politically -- or morally.


1.5	In this scenario I have chosen to focus on three aspects of 
the conflict on this front of the F.E.W.  First, as powerful as the IDF 
may well be, it is still small.  As is the State of Israel itself relative 
to its neighbors.  A consequence is that any losses, no matter how 
small, are the seeds of a potentially catastrophic defeat.  Israel 
must therefore always fight to win -- without sustaining substantial 
losses.  The victory conditions reflect this fact.  Secondly, the Arab 
forces -- even when augmented by Compact resources -- were still 
qualitatively inferior to those available to Israel.  However, what 
they lacked qualitatively they hoped to make up for in quantity.  
This is reflected both in the starting quantities of air units, and in 
the severe restrictions on loadouts imposed on the RED player 
(whether human or HArI O.).  Third, I have attempted to convey 
some of the tensions, frustrations and anxieties of a WCO 
(weapons control officer) in what the US Air Force today would call 
a CRC or AWACS in a situation where air superiority is in doubt, or 
even lost.  These are the folks that direct air combat from the 
ground (CRCs) or the air (AWACS).  You will get the opportunity to 
live that role vicariously if you play the BLUE side in this 
scenario.  In setting up this scenario, I have drawn heavily on the 
experiences of Seren Mosi BenArens (did I spell it right, Mosi?).  
He was (will be) the OIC for air defences at the Ramat airfield on 
that cold but clear morning in January...


2.0 ORDERS:

2.1 BLUE ORDERS:  see FEW5.BLU

2.2 RED ORDERS:   see FEW5.RED



3.0 INTELLIGENCE REPORTS:  

3.1 COMPACT INTELLIGENCE REPORT:  see FEW5.RED

3.2 ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE REPORT:  see FEW5.BLU



4.0 XO SitReps: 

4.1 BLUE XO SitRep:  see FEW5.BLU

4.2 RED XO SitRep:   see FEW5.RED

5.0 BLUE VICTORY CONDITIONS:

5.1 MINIMUM:  see FEW5.BLU

5.2 TOTAL:    see FEW5.BLU


6.0 RED VICTORY CONDITIONS:

6.1 MINIMUM:  see FEW5.RED

6.2 TOTAL:    see FEW5.RED



7.0 DISCUSSION:  

7.1	Estimated free memory required to run this scenario :   515 
Kbytes w/EGA

7.2	Note that in any particular variation of this scenario, all of 
the possible forces may not be available to one side or the other.

7.3	  The Victory conditions are lopsided.  Too bad.  They 
reflect the political reality of the times.  If the Nations of the 
Compact had been successful in their initial attacks on Israel, it is 
likely that those Arab  countries that had chosen to remain 
"neutral," would have been compelled to change their positions.  
So feel the tension.  But there is another reason as well...

7.4	It should be easy for a human player as RED to achieve a 
minimum victory.  Gaining a total victory (if you play by the rules!) 
is much more of a challenge.  On the other hand, if a human player 
chooses BLUE, the real challenge will be attaining even a 
minimum victory.  After that, you can have the satisfaction of 
nuking 'em back -- if you have the stomach for it.

7.5	For those interested in such things, the Syrian artillery 
used in the attack on the IDF 7th was located just outside Tafas.  
This is a small village lying south and slightly east of Quneitra.  
Elements of the unit involved were captured in the IDF counter 
attack through northern Jordan on D+7.  Lake Tiberias is also 
known as the Sea of Galilee.  I prefer the Roman name.

7.6	Why was the Mossad so concerned about those Kingfish?  
Perhaps the numbers can tell you something.  Individual 
conventional warheads on these highflying missiles (cruising 
altitude in excess of 60,000 ft) were capable of destroying a 
medium size warship.  They were rated as a 1 kiloton device.  The 
nuclear warheads on these same missiles were rated at 350 
Kilotons!  Even one missile, if not destroyed totally in the air, was 
capable of effectively eliminating either Tel Aviv or Haifa.  By way 
of further comparison, the largest nuclear device in the Israeli 
arsenal is rated at a little less than 200 kilotons.

7.7	Comments and suggestions are always welcome.   Is there 
any particular topic you would like to see explored in a jelly bean?  
Jelly beans are mini-scenarios dealing with a specific Harpoon 
issue or platform.  Do you have any questions or comments on the 
First Eurasian War?       

7.8	 


<from the workshop and temporal stores of Cobalt Shiva>




title: The Instrument of His Will
Harpoon MEDC Scenario IBM RED  BLUE  F.E.W.
Downloaded from Harpoon Scenario Warehouse, filename FEW5.



- Cobalt Shiva
[6] cobalt 15: outbreak of war in the Middle East  1/12/92 10:36 AM


